Sustainability assessment of plastic circular economy: transitional probabilities with innovative separation

Abstract

The significant effect of plastic waste separation on quality enhancement of recycled plastics comes with a cost of reduced quantity with its negative implications of higher prices. This paper aims to examine the effect of innovation on the sustainability of plastic circular economy (PCE) using a two-state cyclical dynamic closed model of plastic waste management based on ordinary differential equations. The performances of plastic waste separation models with and without innovation were compared under four pragmatic scenarios; the full force of plastic waste discard and incineration, the single force of plastic waste discard, the single force of plastic waste incineration and the complete riddance of plastic waste discard and incineration. In general, the simulated results evince that PCE cannot be sustained subject to the first three scenarios; it is however, sustainable only under the fourth scenario which endorses the complete prohibition of plastic waste discard and incineration. Under all the scenarios, the innovation-driven separation model outperformed the model without innovation in both the forward and reverse transitional phases of PCE. The paper therefore has policy directives for sustainable: PCE, environment, public health, water resources, climate through reduced greenhouse emission, employment and poverty reduction, which constitute strategic goals of the SDGs.