Using ecological niche models for population and range estimates of a threatened snake species (Crotalus oreganus) in Canada

Abstract

Modelling the distribution and abundance of species at risk is extremely important for their conservation and management. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict the occurrence of western rattlesnakes (Crotalus oreganus) in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We applied this to existing population estimates to support a threshold of occurrence for management and conser-vation. We also identified predictors influencing rattlesnake distribution and abundance in this re-gion. Using a Geographic Information Systems platform, we incorporated ENMs, capture–mark– recapture (CMR) and radio-telemetry results, province-wide observations, Landsat imagery and provincial databases for agricultural land use to produce quantitative, spatially explicit, population estimates across BC. Using available western rattlesnake habitat estimated at 183.9 km2 and averaging estimates calculated from densities in three study populations, we generated a mean adult population size of 9722 (±SD 3009; 0.8 relative index of occurrence [RIO] threshold). Only a small area (21.6 km2) of suitable land cover was located within protected areas, potentially protecting an estimated 1144 (±354) adults. Most suitable land cover was within 500 m of roads (170.6 km2), repre-senting potential habitat being used by an estimated 9017 (±2791) adults. At the threshold RIO value chosen (0.8), only a very small area of farmland provided suitable land cover. Our results highlight the possibility of high mortality rates for western rattlesnakes near roads and the fact that protected areas do not provide sufficient coverage to conserve the population. Given that this species has relatively low mobility and high site fidelity to home ranges, our population estimate for BC provides a useful reference for the northern part of the species’ range. It also fulfills a need to estimate population size within political jurisdictions where conservation management decisions are made, as well as presenting a method that can be applied to other parts of the range, including the southern United States. Our study provides an important benchmark for future monitoring of western rattlesnakes in BC using a repeatable and transparent approach. Similar applications can be extrapolated and applied for other threatened species to identify and quantify population distributions and threats, further supporting conservation prioritization tools to be used to maximize the effectiveness of conservation strategies under financial constraints.