Analysis of budgetary impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Latin America

Abstract

Objective. To estimate the budgetary impact of COVID-19 vaccination in six Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, during the 2021-2022 biennium. Methods. Vaccines from Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV), Janssen (JNJ-78436735), Gamaleya Institute (GamCOVID-Vac), Sinovac (CoronaVac), CanSino (Convidecia), AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria), Moderna (mRNA-1273), and Pfizer (BNT162b2) were evaluated, according to their availability in each country. The health system perspective was adopted, so that only direct health care costs were included. The time horizon adopted took into account the implementation times of each vaccination plan, excluding children under 16 years of age and pregnant persons. The following costs were included: cost of vaccination/vaccine administration and costs of hospitalization (general isolation, stepdown care, and intensive care). Two vaccination scenarios were compared: 1) population wanting to be vaccinated (according to national surveys); and 2) population that should be vaccinated (total population susceptible to vaccination). The aggregate costs for each vaccination scenario were compared with the no-vaccination scenario. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed. Results. The different COVID-19 vaccination regimens available in Latin America generate potential savings ranging from USD 100 million to USD 1.5 billion per country for the 2021-2022 biennium, assuming that the vaccination plan proposed for each country is fully implemented. Conclusions. COVID-19 vaccination is a strategy that not only reduces morbidity and mortality in Latin America, but also generates potential savings for health systems in the region.