The impact of age structure on carbon emissions: Based on a cross-country panel data of fertility rate and life expectancy

Abstract

In the context of an emerging deeply aged society, China needs to focus on the impact of demographic change on achieving carbon emissions goals. In fact, to summarize the universal rules of the effect of world’s population age structure on carbon emission can help to better understand the mechanism of population age structure to carbon emission. Thus, based on the panel data of 55 representative global economies, this study empirically and comparatively examines the differential impact of age structure on carbon emissions growth of economies as well as its mechanism from the perspective of fertility rate and life expectancy by using panel data analysis method. The results show that both fertility rate and life expectancy have nonlinear effect on carbon emissions growth. The carbon emissions growth increases with the decline in fertility rate, but decreases with the extension of life expectancy at first and then increased. With the aggravation of population aging, life expectancy plays an increasingly important role in the impact of age structure on carbon emissions. In terms of the main mode of action of fertility rate and life expectancy, the leading mechanism differs between the developing and developed countries. The developing and developed countries are mainly driven by the change of scale and change of efficiency, respectively. This study enriches the research of the relationship between population age structure and carbon emissions growth. Furthermore, the results have policy implications for the path of carbon emissions reduction during the time of population aging.