The Cohort-Component Population Projection: A Strange Attractor for Demographers

Abstract

The cohort-component population projection algorithm has generally been viewed as having one purpose, namely population forecasting. And it has been ‘canonized’ as the one best method for this purpose. A more fruitful view might be to see it first and foremost as a theoretical model of population dynamics, useful for many different purposes. At the same time, other approaches to population forecasting should be given greater attention, approaches with both advantages and disadvantages compared to the cohort-component approach (See Chap. 4 above).