Comparative Study of Parameter Estimation Methods for Solar Irradiation Forecasting

Abstract

In this paper, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) has modeling for solar irradiation forecast by combining two types of parameter estimation methods, Forgetting Factor (FF) and Kalman Filter (KF). For this purpose, the geographical location of length, width and average height than 76.75 e, 31.75 N and 1130.3 meters were used. Parameter with regard to the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE) and R2 estimator is compared. The result shows that the KF consists of high convergence rate to solve complex problems.