Fertility transition of Han and ethnic minorities in China: A tale of convergence and variation

Abstract

China's large and diverse population exhibits interethnic variations in fertility, socioeconomic status, and culture. This study comprehensively analyzes data from multiple population censuses and qualitative interviews to identify fertility transition dynamics among ethnic groups in China. Taken together, the quantitative and qualitative results reveal a rapid decline in total fertility rates among both Han and ethnic minorities and a trend of convergence across different ethnic groups over the past few decades; in addition, the findings also show significant heterogeneity within ethnic minority populations. Our analysis sheds further light on the crucial role of social context and macro-level factors in shaping individuals’ reproductive behaviors. The results offer insights into how policies may address low fertility rates in China.