Mortality prediction of patients in intensive care units using machine learning algorithms based on electronic health records

Abstract

Improving predictive models for intensive care unit (ICU) inpatients requires a new strategy that periodically includes the latest clinical data and can be updated to reflect local characteristics. We extracted data from all adult patients admitted to the ICUs of two university hospitals with different characteristics from 2006 to 2020, and a total of 85,146 patients were included in this study. Machine learning algorithms were trained to predict in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of conventional scoring models and machine learning algorithms was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The conventional scoring models had various predictive powers, with the SAPS III (AUROC 0.773 [0.766–0.779] for hospital S) and APACHE III (AUROC 0.803 [0.795–0.810] for hospital G) showing the highest AUROC among them. The best performing machine learning models achieved an AUROC of 0.977 (0.973–0.980) in hospital S and 0.955 (0.950–0.961) in hospital G. The use of ML models in conjunction with conventional scoring systems can provide more useful information for predicting the prognosis of critically ill patients. In this study, we suggest that the predictive model can be made more robust by training with the individual data of each hospital.