Species distribution models affected by positional uncertainty in species occurrences can still be ecologically interpretable

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a common tool in studies of species–environment relationships but can be negatively affected by positional uncertainty of underlying species occurrence data. Previous work has documented the effect of positional uncertainty on model predictive performance, but its consequences for inference about species–environment relationships remain largely unknown. Here we use over 12 000 combinations of virtual and real environmental variables and virtual species, as well as a real case study, to investigate how accurately SDMs can recover species–environment relationships after applying known positional errors to species occurrence data. We explored a range of environmental predictors with various spatial heterogeneity, species' niche widths, sample sizes and magnitudes of positional error. Positional uncertainty decreased predictive model performance for all modeled scenarios. The absolute and relative importance of environmental predictors and the shape of species–environmental relationships co-varied with a level of positional uncertainty. These differences were much weaker than those observed for overall model performance, especially for homogenous predictor variables. This suggests that, at least for the example species and conditions analyzed, the negative consequences of positional uncertainty on model performance did not extend as strongly to the ecological interpretability of the models. Although the findings are encouraging for practitioners using SDMs to reveal generative mechanisms based on spatially uncertain data, they suggest greater consequences for applications utilizing distributions predicted from SDMs using positionally uncertain data, such as conservation prioritization and biodiversity monitoring.