Impact Evaluation of Climate Change on Spring Phenology in Grapevines and Development of Phenology Models Based on Long-term Records

Abstract

Recent climate change has altered the timing of spring phenology (budbreak and flowering) in grapevines. Specific phenological stages serve as key indicators for agricultural production planning in grapevine cultivation, including disease and pest control and gibberellic acid treatment. Therefore, predicting phenology based on its relationship with temperature (the main environmental factor) has become increasingly important. Long-term phenology data can be used to evaluate the climate change impact to date and develop phenology models. Additionally, future climate change impact assessments can be performed by applying future temperature scenarios to phenology models. Furthermore, the use of long-term phenology data is expanding, including the estimation of temperature responses during dormancy using recently developed statistical analytic methods, such as partial least squares regression. This review firstly describes the relationship between spring phenology and temperature in grapevines, then summarizes the current trends in spring phenology affected by climate change using long-term records. Next, the development of temperature-dependent phenology models and future climate change impact assessments using these models are outlined, along with key considerations for their use. Finally, the usefulness of long-term data in developing highly accurate and robust process-based models is emphasized.