A Study on Livestreaming E-Commerce Development Scale in China Based on Grey System Theory

Abstract

Grey system theory is an effective mathematical method for studying small sample data and solving poor information problems. The grey correlation model and grey prediction model in this theory have been widely used in scientific studies in various industries. Currently, it is quite difficult for China to formulate scientific policies as livestreaming e-commerce is an emerging industry with little available annual data; therefore, the use of grey system theory is crucial to the study of the future scale of livestreaming e-commerce. In this paper, of many factors influencing the development of livestreaming e-commerce, 14 predictors of livestreaming e-commerce development scale were selected to construct a grey correlation model, by which 5 main predictors were determined. Based on the predictors identified above, 4 grey prediction models of GM (1,1), DGM (1,1), NDGM (1,1), and FDGM (1,1) were constructed, and the accuracy of these models was compared. It was concluded that the NDGM (1,1) model had the best simulation effect. The NDGM (1,1) model is then used to forecast and analyse the indicators of livestreaming e-commerce development scale from 2021 to 2023, and some relevant suggestions were made. This paper applies the new modelling approach to livestreaming e-commerce studies, thus broadening the theoretical study field of livestreaming e-commerce. Moreover, the findings can help the Chinese government make more reasonable and effective decisions as a new study on livestreaming e-commerce was conducted from a different perspective in this paper.