Estimate of the excess of deaths reported compared to the report of deaths from covid-19 in peru from march to may 2020

Abstract

Introduction: Mortality from COVID-19 is increasing, this being a concern for the authorities and the general population. Objective: To estimate the existence of an excess of total deaths between the months of March to May 2020 with respect to the number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by the Ministry of Health for COVID-19 and to establish a relationship between the excess of total deaths and the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. Methods: we compared the gap between the National System of Deaths (SINADEF) with the official deaths reported by COVID -19 from March 1 to May 31, 2020; Violent deaths (homicide, suicide, traffic accident; other accidents and unknown deaths) were excluded. To estimate the baseline of deaths, a seasonal linear regression was used, from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019 with a 95% confidence interval. The deaths reported in the National System of Deaths were compared to the initial deaths. The excess of reported deaths was estimated using the "simple difference method". Results: The results of the investigation show that the total excess deaths, from March 1 to May 31, 2020, is 2.24 times higher than the official number of deaths reported by COVID-19. Conclusions: The differences found may be directly associated with an unrecorded death from COVID-19 and other general causes of death related to failures in our Public Health System during the period of the pandemic.