Long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and mortality in the contiguous United States

Abstract

Despite the substantial evidence on the health effects of short-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM2.5), including increasing studies focusing on those from wildland fire smoke, the impacts of long-term wildland fire smoke PM2.5 exposure remain unclear. We investigated the association between long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality and mortality from a wide range of specific causes in all 3,108 counties in the contiguous United States, 2007 to 2020. Controlling for nonsmoke PM2.5, air temperature, and unmeasured spatial and temporal confounders, we found a nonlinear association between 12-mo moving average concentration of smoke PM2.5 and monthly nonaccidental mortality rate. Relative to a month with the long-term smoke PM2.5 exposure below 0.1 μg/m3, nonaccidental mortality increased by 0.16 to 0.63 and 2.11 deaths per 100,000 people per month when the 12-mo moving average of PM2.5 concentration was of 0.1 to 5 and 5+ μg/m3, respectively. Cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, digestive, endocrine, diabetes, mental, and chronic kidney disease mortality were all found to be associated with long-term wildland fire smoke PM2.5 exposure. Smoke PM2.5 contributed to approximately 11,415 nonaccidental deaths/y (95% CI: 6,754, 16,075) in the contiguous United States. Higher smoke PM2.5-related increases in mortality rates were found for people aged 65 and above. Positive interaction effects with extreme heat were also observed. Our study identified the detrimental effects of long-term exposure to wildland fire smoke PM2.5 on a wide range of mortality outcomes, underscoring the need for public health actions and communications that span the health risks of both short- and long-term exposure.