Influence of climate change on working conditions in the late 21st century

Abstract

The adverse effects of climate change may affect work conducted outdoors. For this reason, this study seeks to evaluate these effects by comparing South American work capacity under climate conditions between 1979 and 2005, as well as expected future climate scenarios from 2071 to 2100. Thermal stress was estimated using the Environmental Stress Index (ESI), based on atmospheric variables for climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that, even in favorable climate scenarios, outdoor manual labor capacity will be reduced by 25 to 50% by the end of the 21st century in basically all of South America, especially in the Amazonian regions, parts of the north and northeast of Brazil, and in vast regions from Paraguay to Suriname. There is an overall pessimistic outlook with respect to outdoor working conditions during common labor hours due to increases in the greenhouse effect.