The US Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Surveillance Environment: An Ecological Analysis of the Relationship of Testing Adequacy in the Context of Vaccination

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing is a critical component of public health surveillance and pandemic control, especially among the unvaccinated, as the nation resumes in-person activities. This study examined the relationships between COVID-19 testing rates, testing positivity rates, and vaccination coverage across US counties. Methods: Data from the Health and Human Services' Community Profile Report and 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates were used. A total of 3114 US counties were analyzed from January through September 2021. Associations among the testing metrics and vaccination coverage were estimated using multiple linear regression models with fixed effects for states and adjusted for county demographics. COVID-19 testing rates (polymerase chain reaction [PCR] testing per 1000), testing positivity (percentage of all PCR tests that were positive), and vaccination coverage (percentage of county population that was fully vaccinated) were determined. Results: Nationally, median daily COVID-19 testing rates were highest in January and September (35.5 and 34.6 tests per capita, respectively) and lowest in July (13.2 tests per capita). Monthly testing positivity was between 0.03 and 0.12 percentage points lower for each percentage points of vaccination coverage, and monthly testing rates were between 0.08 and 0.22 tests per capita higher for each percentage point of vaccination coverage. Conclusions: The quantity of COVID-19 testing was associated with vaccination coverage, implying counties having populations with relatively lower protection against the virus are conducting less testing than counties with relatively more protection. Monitoring testing practices in relation to vaccination coverage may be used to monitor the sufficiency of COVID-19 testing based on population susceptibility to the virus.