Spatiotemporal assessment of landslide risk over large areas: a case study of the Valencian Community (1950–2021)

Abstract

The risk posed by natural hazards has gained growing attention in recent decades, largely due to the intensification and recurrence of extreme events, with the climate crisis identified as the primary driver. Landslide risk is no exception, although its impacts are generally less evident than those of floods or, particularly, severe droughts. In both cases, urban expansion has further exacerbated the problem, especially since the mid-twentieth century in more developed regions. This residential growth often took place in poorly regulated settings, particularly during its early stages, leading to the occupation of areas that were environmentally, culturally, or from a landscape perspective unsuitable, and frequently exposed to natural hazards. In fact, the risk of landslides affecting buildings located on susceptible terrain can largely be attributed to ineffective land management, often resulting from the absence of specific regulations. This study introduces a set of risk indices that serve as objective tools for the dynamic assessment of landslide risk in extensive and spatially fragmented territories divided into local entities. Based on these indices, criteria are proposed to evaluate the degree of risk and the adequacy of its management within each local entity, considering the evolution of urban development. Finally, a classification system is presented that organizes all cases according to their severity, offering a decision-support tool for public authorities tasked with ensuring effective land management.