A methodological approach to assess the impact of energy and raw materials constraints on the sustainable deployment of light‐duty vehicles by 2050

Abstract

Light‐duty vehicles represent the land transport means with the most prominent impact on environment, society’s travel needs, and market dynamics. The evolution of different powertrains is analyzed herein mainly in terms of the raw materials sensitive to exploitation and the energy use in three stages: production, operation, and end of life. In this sense, this study proposes a methodology based on balancing the rapports between supply and demand in order to evaluate every powertrain’s market share by 2050. The results of this analysis are compared to the outputs of other models and frameworks that aim to assess the sustainable deployment of transport means. The results show that scenarios that propose a market share of 25% for battery electric vehicles are unlikely to happen by 2050 due to the disruptions of the lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains, while the ambitious target of 50% market share for battery electric vehicles is not possible by then. The main findings of this study refer to the role played by battery chemistry and storage capacity in determining the market penetration of various powertrains for light‐duty vehicles under the specific constraints of the automotive sector related to energy and materials.