Tax revenues estimation and forecast for state tax audit

Abstract

The forecast model analysis of dependence of tax revenues of the state budget on macroeconomic indicators is presented. For example, the hypothesis of the impact of total retail trade on domestic taxes on goods, works and services through correlation and regression analysis is studied. Moreover, the influence of nominal income per capita, the volume of industrial products (goods and services), and investments in fixed capital on income tax was assessed. In the course of the study, the indicator of crude oil and natural gas production was selected and its impact on tax revenues from international trade and foreign operations of the country was analyzed. Thus, the importance of methods of forecasting tax revenues in the context of state tax audit and budget planning is substantiated.