COVID-19 pandemic and transmission factors: An empirical investigation of different countries

Abstract

The present work evaluates the impact of age, population density, total population, rural population, annual average temperature, basic sanitation facilities, and diabetes prevalence on the transmission of COVID-19. This research is an effort to identify the major predictors that have a significant impact on the number of COVID-19 cases per million population for 83 countries. The findings highlight that a population with a greater share of old people (aged above 65) shows a higher number of COVID-19 positive cases and a population with a lower median age has fewer cases. This can be explained in terms of higher co-morbidities and the lower general immunity in the older age group. The analysis restates the widely seen results that a higher median age and greater prevalence of co-morbidities leads to higher cases per million and lesser population density and interpersonal contact helps in containing the spread of the virus. The study finds foundation in the assertion that a higher temperature might lower the number of cases, or that temperature in general can affect the infectivity. The study suggests that better access to sanitation is a certain measure to contain the spread of the virus. The outcome of this study will be helpful in ascertaining the impact of these indicators in this pandemic, and help in policy formation and decision-making strategies to fight against it.