A forecast of future silviculture re-establishment technologies in plantation forestry

Abstract

Technology is rapidly advancing and in forestry new innovations are increasingly being integrated into operations such as silviculture re-establishment (regeneration), harvesting and processing. The goal of this study was to identify eucalypt re-establishment technologies which will become important from 2018 to 2040 and to forecast the date on to when 50% of the technologies would be adopted in new forest machinery. The Delphi technique was used to systematically elicit expert opinion on possible future re-establishment technologies which have the highest probability of being adopted in operations. The process involved the distribution of a questionnaire to 24 experts in the field of silviculture re-establishment in plantation forestry. Results from the Delphi revealed that future technology development in re-establishment would be directed to four main areas, namely: (i) machine development (ii) material input innovations (iii) machine operator advances and (iv) computerized technology applications. Within these broad technology areas, 18 specific technologies were identified and forecasted. 15 technologies were forecasted to reach 50% adoption by 2025 and one technology was identified as already adopted. Two technologies were identified as highly unlikely to be adopted in future. Forecasting future technological advances in re-establishment is important because it enables forest growers to plan, strategize and take decisions to deal with future changing environments.