Which are the risk factors in the pricing of Personal Pension Plans in Spain?

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse if the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or the model suggested by Chen et al. (1986) can efficiently explain the variability of the cross-sectional returns on the Personal Pension Plans in Spain between 1995-2003, as well as to find their sources of risks. To test both models we have followed the traditional two-step cross-sectional regressions by Fama and MacBeth (1973). The results of our analysis show two significant risk factors derived from the fixed-income market: non-anticipated changes in the interest rate term structure and the default risk premium.