The Interplay of Economic, Environmental, and Political Factors on Life Expectancy in Somalia

Abstract

Life expectancy in Somalia remains critically low due to the complex interplay of economic, environmental, and political factors. This study aims to examine the determinants of life expectancy in Somalia from 1985 to 2022. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and VECM Granger causality tests, the analysis incorporates GDP, income inequality, CO₂ emissions, institutional quality, and internal conflict as key explanatory variables. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run cointegration relationship among these factors. The results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on life expectancy (coefficient = 0.0675, p = 0.0163), while income inequality (-27.582, p = 0.0257) and CO₂ emissions (-0.176, p = 0.0324) negatively affect life expectancy in the long run. Additionally, weak institutional quality (-2.187, p = 0.000) and internal conflict (-0.103, p = 0.002) significantly reduce life expectancy. The error correction term is negative and highly significant (-1.536, p = 0.000), indicating a strong adjustment toward equilibrium. The study concludes that fostering inclusive economic growth, improving governance, reducing inequality, and addressing environmental degradation are essential to improving life expectancy in Somalia.