A scoring system to predict the risk of organ/space surgical site infections after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer based on a large-scale retrospective study

Abstract

Background: A scoring system allows risk stratification of morbidity might be helpful for selecting risk-adapted interventions to improve surgical safety. Few studies have been designed to develop scoring systems to predict SSIs after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Methods: We analyzed the records of 2364 patients who underwent laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. A logistic regression model was used to identify the determinant variables and develop a predictive score. Results: There were 2364 patients, of whom 131 (5.5 %) developed overall SSIs, 33 (1.4 %) developed incisional SSIs, and 98 (4.1 %) developed organ/space SSIs. No significant risk factor was associated with incisional SSIs. A multivariate analysis showed the following adverse risk factors for organ/space SSIs: BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, intraoperative blood loss ≥75 ml, operation time ≥240 min, and perioperative transfusion. Each of these factors contributed 1 point to the risk score. The organ/space SSIs rates were 1.8, 3.9, 9.9, and 39.0 % for the low-, intermediate-, high-, and extremely high-risk categories, respectively (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score of organ/space SSIs was 0.734. There were no statistically significant differences between the observed and predicted incidence rates for organ/space SSIs in the validation set. Conclusions: This validated and simple scoring system could accurately predict the risk of organ/space SSIs after laparoscopic gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The score might be helpful in the selection of risk-adapted interventions to decrease the incidence rates of organ/space SSIs.