Spatiotemporal urban sprawl analysis using geospatial techniques: a case of Bule Hora Town, Ethiopia (1994–2024)

Abstract

Unregulated urban expansion in secondary towns presents major challenges for sustainable land management, particularly in the Global South. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl in Bule Hora Town, Ethiopia, from 1994 to 2024 using a geospatial framework that integrates multi-temporal Landsat imagery, supervised classification, Shannon’s Entropy Index, landscape metrics, and multi-buffer analysis. Results show a threefold increase in built-up land—from 10.7% (496.2 ha) to 33.0% (1532.2 ha)—largely at the expense of plantations and farmland. Rising entropy values (0.71–0.86) and fragmentation indices indicate a transition toward dispersed urban morphology. Road infrastructure emerged as a dominant driver, with significant land conversion occurring within 1 km of major corridors. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of combining entropy and landscape metrics for monitoring urban dynamics in secondary towns and presents a scalable geospatial methodology that supports sustainable urban development in line with SDG 11 and SDG 15.