Carrying capacity trend and projection analysis for Sumatra Selatan agricultural land in 2030

Abstract

This research is conducted to determine and analyze carrying capacity of agricultural land of Sumatra Selatan in 2015 as well as to project it in 2030. The analysis is also carried out to describe the Optimum Population Number and Land Requirement per Hectare of each regency and municipality in 2030. The research method applied using quantitatively descriptive method in which the data is collected from secondary source such as Agricultural Ministry and Central Statistics Agency publication and supported by literature study. The result shows that Sumatra Selatan has high carrying capacity (τ > 1) in 2015 and 2030. It means that the province is capable of food self-sufficiency since the province is underpopulated. The projection indicates that there is decline of carrying capacity in 2030 occurring across the province. For example, Ogan Komering Ulu (OKU) Regency which previously has high carrying capacity, is predicted to have experience low carrying capacity.