Mathematical Model for Rice Blast Disease Caused by Spore Dispersion Affected from Climate Factors

Abstract

Rice blast disease, caused by the fungus Pyricularia oryzae, is one of the diseases that reduce rice yields in Thailand. The fungus’s dispersal influences this disease outbreak. This study aims to develop a mathematical model for spore dispersion, namely a non-local diffusion equation in terms of the dispersal kernel, by adding a factor that causes spore dispersion due to rain splash and adjusting the infection term based on weather conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. The model assessed the existence and uniqueness of solutions by Banach’s fixed point theorem and used a finite difference method to solve them. The numerical simulation confirmed the existence and uniqueness part of the analysis. Because the climate data was used effectively for developing the disease, the rice blast disease pandemic was widespread in the study areas.