Short-Term Passenger Flow Forecast of Rail Transit Station Based on MIC Feature Selection and ST-LightGBM considering Transfer Passenger Flow

Abstract

To solve the problems of current short-term forecasting methods for metro passenger flow, such as unclear influencing factors, low accuracy, and high time-space complexity, a method for metro passenger flow based on ST-LightGBM after considering transfer passenger flow is proposed. Firstly, using historical data as the training set to transform the problem into a data-driven multi-input single-output regression prediction problem, the problem of the short-term prediction of metro passenger flow is formalized and the difficulties of the problem are identified. Secondly, we extract the candidate temporal and spatial features that may affect passenger flow at a metro station from passenger travel data based on the spatial transfer and spatial similarity of passenger flow. Thirdly, we use a maximal information coefficient (MIC) feature selection algorithm to select the significant impact features as the input. Finally, a short-term forecasting model for metro passenger flow based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model is established. Taking transfer passenger flow into account, this method has a low space-time cost and high accuracy. The experimental results on the dataset of Lianban metro station in Xiamen city show that the proposed method obtains higher prediction accuracy than SARIMA, SVR, and BP network.