An extensive analysis of the effect of social distancing in transmission of COVID-19 in Bangladesh by the aid of a modified SEIRD Model

Abstract

The upsurge of Coronavirus has become widespread all around the world. More than 200 countries got affected by Coronavirus. Research works are being conducted to study the pattern of this infectious disease to minimize the transmission of this virus. Epidemiological models are one of the major approaches being used as part of the study. These models help in analyses of different aspects associated with a contagious disease such as death rate, recovery rate, infected rate. Models like SIR, SEIR, SIQR are being promptly used to investigate the patterns of Coronavirus in different countries. In this paper, we proposed a modified SEIRD model to study the trend of this infectious disease concerning Bangladesh. The SEIRD model was developed further by incorporating two new factors isolation and social distancing. We will observe the effect of these factors on the transmission rate of this virus and make predictions about the related factors. Results show that our predicted results well match the real world scenario.