Research on sales forecast based on prophet-SARIMA combination model

Abstract

The stable development of e-commerce enterprises cannot be separated from scientific replenishment planning, and forecasting the sales volume of products helps e-commerce to make a reasonable replenishment plan, so as to speed up cash flow and reduce inventory pressure. Based on the in-depth study of Prophet model and seasonal differential autoregressive moving average model, as well as the analysis of daily sales volume of an e-commerce product from January 2015 to March 2018, a Prophet-SARIMA combination model for sales volume prediction is proposed. The principle of the combination model is to use prophet and SARIMA model to forecast the sales data respectively, and then weighted combination to get the final forecast results. Analyze and compare the prediction effect of single model and combination model. The first mock exam shows that the Prophet-SARIMA combination model has higher accuracy and stability in sales volume forecasting than single model. The sales volume forecast results of Prophet SARIMA combination model can provide an important basis for the e-commerce to supplement orders scientifically.