Prediction of intraventricular haemorrhage in preterm infants using time series analysis of blood pressure and respiratory signals

Abstract

Despite the decline in mortality rates of extremely preterm infants, intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) remains common in survivors. The need from resuscitation and cardiorespiratory management, particularly within the first 24 hours of life, are important factors in the incidence and timing of IVH. Variability analyses of heart rate and blood pressure data has demonstrated potential approaches to predictive monitoring. In this study, we investigated the early identification of infants at a high risk of developing IVH, using time series analysis of blood pressure and respiratory data. We also explore approaches to improving model performance, such as the inclusion of multiple variables and signal preprocessing to enhance the results from detrended fluctuation analysis. Of the models we evaluated, the highest area under receiver-operator characteristic curve (5th, 95th percentile) achieved was 0.921 (0.82, 1.00) by mean diastolic blood pressure and the long-term scaling exponent of pulse interval (PI α2), exhibiting a sensitivity of >90% at a specificity of 75%. Following evaluation in a larger population, our approach may be useful in predictive monitoring to identify infants at high risk of developing IVH, offering caregivers more time to adjust intensive care treatment.