Number and Distribution of General Practitioners and Prediction of Demand for General Practitioners in Guangxi

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the number and distribution of general practitioners(GPs) and predict the demand for GPs in Guangxi.Methods: GPs in the study was defined as personnel who were working in grass-root health service settings (including community health service settings and township health centers) in Guangxi and had obtained the certificate of job-transfer training of GPs.The data about GPs in 2012 were provided by the information center of Guangxi Health Department, and the number of population in each region in Guangxi was obtained from Guangxi Health Statistics Yearbook.The number of population in each region in Guangxi in 2020 was predicted.SPSS 16.0 statistical software was employed to conduct descriptive statistical analysis, and Arc GIS software was used to draw density map.Results: By the end of 2012, the total number of GPs in the rural area of Guangxi was 1 134, and there was only 0.24 GP per every 10 thousand residents; there was a lack of 3 598 GPs to reach the minimum allocation standard of 1 GP per every 10 thousand residents.To reach the allocation standard predicted in 2020, which was 2 or 3 GPs per every 10 thousand residents, the total number of GPs was supposed to be 10 344 or 15 515, and an increase of 9 210 or 14 381 was needed compared with 2012.By the end of 2012, the total number of general practitioners in the urban area of Guangxi was 773, and there were 1.47 GPs per every 10 thousand residents.To reach the allocation standard predicted in 2020, which was 2 or 3 GPs per every 10 thousand residents, the total number of GPs was supposed to be 1 185 or 1 777, and an increase of 412 or 1 004 was needed compared with 2012.Conclusion: Guangxi has a great shortage of GPs and a large gap between rural and urban areas, and the distribution of GPs is uneven.The training of GPs should be intensified, in order to reduce the gap between rural and urban areas.