Predictive control based on occupant behavior prediction for domestic hot water system using data mining algorithm

Abstract

Domestic hot water systems are a primary source of energy consumption in buildings, and present a promising future in terms of energy saving. Predictive control methods have been used to reduce energy consumption during an operation period. However, current methods lack consideration of occupant behavior, which significantly influences the prediction results. In this study, a data-based predictive method is proposed to predict the shower behavior of occupants. A dataset was collected from seven occupants and was trained using support vector machine (SVM) to learn their showering habits. These results were used to predict the hot water demand. A comparative analysis shows that, in this way, the prediction results are more reliable under predictive control than predicting the hot water demand directly using SVM. A simulation of a domestic hot water system was then conducted. The results indicate that the proposed approach can reduce the heat loss from a hot water storage tank (ST) by up to 33% compared to a traditional control method, while maintaining a high assurance of the hot water supply (an insufficient hot water supply of less than 1%) with little change to the original system.