Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Abstract

Abstract There is a huge loss of lives worldwide in relation to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first emerged in December 2019. In view of this the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), is essential to explore for COVID-19. Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic have been retrieved from publicly accessible website of the WHO (World Health Organization), and were processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. The CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, for the period between January 25, 2020 and April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of global CFR, data for the next 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Mean CFRs, in the naive estimates, were 4.59% (95% CI: 3.59 – 5.59) for the world including China, and 3.62% (95% CI: 2.01 – 5.23) for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% (95% CI: 7.18 – 24.02) globally, and 21.65% (95% CI: 11.15 – 32.15) in countries outside China. Following statistical model analysis, the global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. The global CFR of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, ranged 5.9 – 7.04% (mean: 6.58%; 95% CI: 6.11 – 7.03), by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 4.78%. The CFR as explored in the current study might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic.