A Comparative Study of the SIR Prediction Models and Disease Control Strategies: A Case Study of the State of Kerala, India

Abstract

The Novel Coronavirus (nCoV or COVID-19) that hit the City of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China in December last year has become the greatest concern throughout the world. The countries in the world have shown a significant difference in the control of the spread of disease and the mortality rate. Kerala—a southern state in India—has shown notable performance in the field of disease control of COVID-19. Various measures of disease control are proved effective in the containment of COVID-19. A study of the situation in Kerala after the outbreak of COVOD-19 is used to analyze the effect of the control strategies. In this chapter, the main focus is on a comparative study of the predictions of the SIR model and the actual performance made by the state in controlling the disease.