Bayesian Network Modelling for "direct Farm" Mode based Agricultural Supply Chain Risk

Abstract

"Direct Farm" is a special supply chain mode which can effectively improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural products in China. However, the development of "Direct Farm" is limited due to its potential risks. Based on this, we use Bayesian network to model the risks of agricultural supply chain under the "Direct Farm" mode, then the forward reasoning and reverse reasoning of the model can help managers to predict and analyse the risks of supply chain, and take timely risk response measures to ensure the stable operation of agricultural supply chain.