Will the next human influenza pandemic be caused by the virus of the avian flu A/H5N1? Arguments pro and counter

Abstract

In 1997, the avian influenza A subtype H5N1 that caused big outbreaks of fowl pest in mass poultry farming had emerged in Hong Kong. Its spread throughout Eurasia had given rise to concerns in terms of the possible imminence of the next human influenza pandemic. In this article, epidemiological and virological arguments supporting or declining this fear are outlined and discussed with regard to viral infectivity and pathogenicity. © Springer-Verlag 2006.