Effectiveness of Adaptive Operating Rules for Reservoirs

Abstract

In this paper, a methodological proposal is made to develop an adaptive decision support system for reservoir management. The system is based on an optimization model that determines operating rules that meet certain optimality conditions based on the state of the reservoir at a certain time and on a streamflow forecast, if available. The model is based on Spiliotis et al. in Water Resour Manage 30:5759-5778, where a general methodology was developed to specify static operating rules for reservoir systems. The proposed methodology consists of modifying the optimization procedure developed in the previous work to dynamically update operating rules to adapt management to the changing situation. To evaluate its effectiveness, the methodology was applied to the Pisuerga-Carrión reservoir system, in the Spanish part of the Duero basin. The results obtained with adaptive rules were compared with those obtained applying the same static operating rule for the entire analysis period. Adaptive rules were found to lead to better operating results, particularly if a successful streamflow forecast method is available.