The role of agriculture in the formation of macroeconomic indicators of national economy

Abstract

The most significant and negative trend for national economy of some countries is the decline in farm production and share of agriculture in the total gross value added, as well as decrease in fixed investment and labor and production potential of agriculture. Negative processes in reproduction of farming fixed capital puts forward the need for a deep analysis of the situation. It is also necessary to identify opportunities to overcome the crisis and create conditions for sustainable economic growth of the farm sector of the national economy. This study is devoted to the research of the macroeconomic indicators dynamics that characterize the role of agriculture in the national economy, as illustrated by indicators of Russian Federation. Using the method of analytical alignment of time series, models of the gross value added share, fixed assets, fixed investments, the number of people employed in agriculture in the total national indices were developed and analyzed. The patterns and trends of the Russian economy in the long-term dynamics of 1990–2017 were also investigated. The results show a trend towards a decrease in the analyzed indicators, which should be the basis for making important management and practical decisions in agriculture. The analysis of secular trend allows to apply classical forecasting methods, as they have high accuracy and reliability. The results can be used in the practice of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, determining the potential and investment attractiveness of individual sectors of the national economy and making justified public administration decisions.