A Nomogram for Predicting Prostate Cancer with Lymph Node Involvement in Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy Era: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study in Japan (The MSUG94 Group)

Abstract

Background: To create a nomogram for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) with lymph node involvement (LNI) in the robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) era. Methods: A retrospective multicenter cohort study was conducted on 3195 patients with PCa who underwent RARP at nine institutions in Japan between September 2012 and August 2021. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors strongly associated with LNI. The Bootstrap-area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the internal validity of the prediction model. Results: A total of 1855 patients were enrolled in this study. Overall, 93 patients (5.0%) had LNI. On multivariable analyses, initial prostate-specific antigen, number of cancer-positive and-negative biopsy cores, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical T stage were independent predictors of PCa with LNI. The nomogram predicting PCa with LNI has been demonstrated (AUC 84%). Using a nomogram cut-off of 6%, 492 of 1855 patients (26.5%) would avoid unnecessary pelvic lymph node dissection, and PCa with LNI would be missed in two patients (0.1%). The sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values associated with a cutoff of 6% were 74%, 80%, and 99.6%, respectively. Conclusions: We developed a clinically applicable nomogram for predicting the probability of patients with PCa with LNI.