Analysis of international visitor arrivals in Bali: Modeling and forecasting with seasonality and intervention

Abstract

This work aims to develop a time series forecasting model for the number of international visitor arrivals to Bali. Tourism sector in Bali is expected to grow since it is considered as the most prepared sector in terms of facilities and infrastructure compared to other sectors. However, Bali has faced some problems related to government policies, unrests, economic and political instability, natural disasters and terrorism which obstruct the growth of the number of international visitor arrivals. Uncovering these social and environmental influences, and incorporating them into the model can lead to a better forecasting model. The data obtained from 2000 to 2016 and in 2017 were used as modeling and validation periods, respectively. The best fitted ARIMAX model is then used to forecast the visitor arrivals for the period 2018-2023. The results show that the number of international visitor arrivals in Bali will continue to grow.