Control of Nipah virus outbreak in commercial pig-farm with biosecurity and culling

Abstract

A coupled pig-human Nipah virus disease model is studied in a commercial farm to understand dynamics of disease spillover from pig to human. To portray the specific scenario, two parameters representing biosecurity level and selective culling are included in the system. Along with standard equilibrium analysis, backward and Hopf bifurcation phenomena are demonstrated analytically and numerically. Optimal control of culling alone and also with other controls for the minimization of loss are discussed. It is observed that, irrespective of its application rate, culling is more effective in presence of other controls. Parameter sensitivity analysis of system solution has been used to identify significant parameters for the change of disease dynamics. Sensitivity test is also performed on the objective function of optimal control problem, which singled out crucial parameters influencing the economic loss of farm-owner. Based on this study, some strategies regarding application of various controls are suggested.