The impact of tumor size on the prognosis and chemotherapy efficacy in stage I/II colon cancer patients

Abstract

Background: The impact of tumor size on the survival and chemotherapy reponse of early-stage colon cancer remains unclear. Our study explored the effect of tumor size on overall survival (OS) and postoperative chemotherapy efficacy in patients with stage I/II colon cancer. Methods: Stage I/II colon cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and a China center were extracted as two cohorts respectively. X-tile program was adopted to acquire optimal cutoff points of tumor size (16mm and 49mm). Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to indicate discrimination ability of prognostic factors. Results: Overall, 104,908 and 168 stage I/II postoperative colon cancer patients from SEER database and a China center were eligible, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that large tumor size was associated with poor OS in two cohorts. The effect of tumor size on OS gradually decreased as the T stage increased both before PSM (c-index 0.535 for T1N0M0 and 0.506 for T4N0M0, p<0.05) and after PSM (c-index 0.543 for T1N0M0, p<0.05; c-index 0.543 for T4N0M0, p>0.05). Stratified analyses showed that chemotherapy improved the OS rate by 9.5% (chemotherapy vs. non-chemotherapy: 83.5% vs. 73.0%) or 12.8% (chemotherapy vs. non-chemotherapy: 85.7% vs. 72.9%) before and after PSM in T2N0M0 patients with tumor size >49 mm, but not in T1N0M0. The survival benefit provided by chemotherapy for T2N0M0 patients with large tumor was also validated in the Chinese cohort. Conclusions: Large tumor size was a risk factor for stage I/II colon cancer, especially for T1N0M0. Tumor size could serve as a complementary factor guiding postoperative chemotherapy for T2N0M0 patients.