Storm surge risk assessment and sensitivity analysis based on multiple criteria decision-making methods: a case study of Huizhou City

Abstract

Coastal areas face escalating storm surge disasters due to rising sea levels and urban growth, posing greater risks to lives and property. Comprehensive storm surge risk assessment and sensitivity analysis in coastal areas are crucial for effective disaster prevention and mitigation. This research focuses on Huizhou, China, conducting a comparative study of storm surge risk assessment and sensitivity analysis based on an integrated approach, which includes the storm surge inundation numerical model (FVCOM-SWAN), Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques, and Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. Ten flood-related risk indicators are selected from the hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the weights of which are evaluated through a comprehensive comparison among Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), Entropy Weight (EW), AHP-EW, and FAHP-EW methods. High-precision risk level maps are generated subsequently utilizing GIS and RS techniques. Sensitivities of the indicators are analyzed using One-At-A-Time (OAT) and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) methods. The proposed storm surge risk assessment framework, the MCDM comparative study and the sensitivity analysis can offer insights for better understanding and management of storm surge risks, and contribute to the standardization and application of storm surge risk assessment.