Blood pressure and the risk of diabetes: A longitudinal observational study based on Chinese individuals

Abstract

Background: With lifestyle changes, the incidence of diabetes has been steadily increasing, and hypertension remains a significant risk factor impacting cardiovascular health. Understanding the potential effects of blood pressure on diabetes risk is, therefore, crucial. This study aims to comprehensively explore the relationship between blood pressure and diabetes risk. Methods: A total of 211,809 individuals undergoing health check-ups were included in this analysis. Participants were divided into four groups based on the quartiles of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, with the primary outcome being the incidence of new-onset diabetes. Results: Over an average follow-up period of 3.1 years (±0.94 years), 3,000 men (1.42%) and 1,173 women (0.55%) were newly diagnosed with diabetes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that blood pressure is an independent predictor of new-onset diabetes (systolic blood pressure HR 1.07 per SD increase, 95% CI: 1.01–1.12, P for trend <0.001; diastolic blood pressure HR 1.11 per SD increase, 95% CI: 1.06–1.17, P for trend 0.001). The optimal cutoff for systolic blood pressure in predicting new-onset diabetes was found to be 123 mmHg (area under the curve 0.7014, sensitivity 0.65, specificity 0.64), which was superior to the predictive efficacy of diastolic blood pressure (area under the curve 0.6645, sensitivity 0.63, specificity 0.62). Subgroup analyses indicated that the risk of blood pressure-related diabetes was significantly higher in middle-aged individuals compared to older adults (P for interaction <0.05). Additionally, women showed a higher risk of systolic blood pressure-related diabetes than men, and normal-weight individuals exhibited a higher risk than those with obesity (P for interaction <0.05). Conclusions: This cohort study within a Chinese population highlights that, after adjusting for other confounding factors, blood pressure is an independent risk factor for diabetes. This association is particularly pronounced among middle-aged individuals, women, and those of normal weight. Moreover, systolic blood pressure demonstrates superior predictive efficacy for diabetes compared to diastolic blood pressure.