Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall

Abstract

Why do some countries democratize and others do not? Why do some democracies become long-lasting and others quickly reverse to authoritarianism? In the other pole, why are some authoritarian regimes stable while others collapse? These are classical questions in comparative politics and we have managed to answer them in diverse manners in the last decades. And yet somehow we seem to be far from a dominant paradigm, or a fairly undisputed theory of regime change. In Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall, Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán (2013) offer yet another answer to these core questions. Therefore, the natural judgment for readers to make is whether their theory is in any fashion superior to previous ones. Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán make a valid point about the limitations of the theories of democratization so far, including contemporary and often celebrated economic accounts such as those of Acemoglu and Robinson (2005) and Boix (2003). They correctly asses the need for broader theoretical frameworks and of more grounded and agent based measurement. Nevertheless, they run into measurement and design problems, which account for weak evidence against well-established theories. Regarding theory alone, the book highlights the causal role of normative preferences and external pressures in processes of regime change. While these are valid points, the authors do not offer strong theoretical arguments about who's normative preferences should matter and why. The focus on Latin America makes sense. Something happened in the region for countries to abandon authoritarianism (hegemonic by the early 1900s) and embrace democracy. Moreover, democracies became fairly stable in the region, previously characterized by instability and a constant back and forward of regimes types. As the authors argue, something took place in Latin America than explains how democracy becomes the only game in town. According to Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán, there is a great deal of learning during authoritarianism and political actors often change their positions and develop strong preferences for democracy. Normative predisposition of political actors change according to past traumas and examples coming from abroad. In my view, the notion that political actors learn throughout the process, thus changing strategies and beliefs, is a powerful one. In this review, I will first address the book's theory and then its research design. As will be argued, the natural antagonists of Mainwaring and Pérez-Liñán's theory are the economic accounts of regime change, which so far have the blessings of many in Recensiones CienCia PolítiCa REVISTA DE CIENCIA POLÍTICA / VOLUMEN 35 / Nº 2 / 2015 / 427-431