Spreading the disease: Protest in times of pandemics

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of large anti-lockdown protests on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany. Since protesters at such large gatherings are very mobile and largely neglect SARS-CoV-2 containment strategies, they may contribute to the regional transmission of the coronavirus. Employing novel data on bus connections of travel companies specialized in driving protesters to these gatherings, and exploiting the timing of two large-scale demonstrations in November 2020, we estimate the causal impact of these protests on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using an event study framework. Our findings imply sizable increases in infection rates in protesters' origin regions after these demonstrations. A month after the protests, treated areas face a relative increase in infection rates up to 35% compared to non-treated areas. Our results shed light on public health consequences of behavior that ignores potential externalities for the society during a pandemic.