Probability of Risk Factors Affecting Small-Scale LNG Supply Chain Activities in the Indonesian Archipelago

Abstract

In Indonesia, the CoS for power supply increased from Rp. 1025 to Rp. 1334/KWh from 2016 to 2021, respectively; this indicates an inefficient process in electricity provision. One contributing factor to this inefficiency is the existence of many high speed diesel (HSD)-fueled power plants. These are distributed across the Indonesian archipelago with a supply chain that only uses sea transportation. The absence of an economical small-scale LNG (SS-LNG) supply chain also demonstrates the inadequate infrastructure for distributing LNG to refineries. This study aims to analyze the probability of risks that occur in SS-LNG supply chains in the Indonesian archipelago. The analytical methods used are descriptive statistical analysis and Delphi analysis through in-depth interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with experts. Results showed that the SS-LNG supply chain process in Indonesia includes LNG loading, unloading, shipping, picking, storage, regasification, and distribution. There are 30 risk indicators that may occur, with the highest risks including ship accidents, equipment damage, lack of transport ships, bad weather, earthquakes, tsunami, poor safety cultures, and low levels of safety leadership. These risk indicators can be used in implementing SS-LNG.