Association Rules Between Urban Road Traffic Accidents and Violations Considering Temporal and Spatial Constraints: A Case Study of Beijing

Abstract

Traffic violations are among the leading causes of accidents and significantly compromise urban road safety. This study analyzed traffic violation and incident data collected by automated enforcement systems in urban Beijing from 2019 to 2023, consisting of 3264 traffic accident records and 147,876 traffic violation records. Through a spatiotemporal data association method, 2126 violations directly associated with accidents were identified. The FP-growth algorithm was then applied to derive 18 robust association rules encompassing five categories of accidents and four categories of violations. The findings indicate that the correlation between traffic accidents and violations displays clear peak periods during the morning (8:00–9:00) and evening (17:00–18:00). Violations such as red light running, stopping beyond the stop line during a red light, and ignoring prohibitions strongly correlate with traffic accidents under specific spatiotemporal conditions. Illegally parked vehicles not only reduce road transport efficiency but also significantly elevate the risk of traffic accidents in the surrounding area. The association rules identified in this study can assist traffic managers in formulating more effective measures to mitigate traffic violations, tackle traffic accidents at their source, enhance urban traffic safety, and promote the long-term sustainability of urban transportation systems.