A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores

Abstract

Introduction: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Several predictive models have been developed for ICH; however, none of them have been consistently used in routine clinical practice or clinical research. In the study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting 1-year functional outcome after ICH (ICH Functional Outcome Score, ICH-FOS). Furthermore, we compared discrimination of the ICH-FOS and 8 existing ICH scores with regard to 30-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH.Methods: The ICH-FOS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry, in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) ≥3 at 1 year after ICH. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors, and β-coefficients were used to generate scoring system of the ICH-FOS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.Results: The overall 1-year poor functional outcome (mRS ≥ 3) was 46.7% and 44.9% in the derivation (n = 1,953) and validation (n = 1,302) cohorts, respectively. A 16-point ICH-FOS was developed from the set of independent predictors of 1-year poor functional outcome after ICH including age (P < 0.001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P = 0.002), ICH location (P < 0.001), hematoma volume (P < 0.001), and intraventricular extension (P < 0.001). The ICH-FOS showed good discrimination (AUROC) in the derivation (0.836, 95% CI: 0.819-0.854) and validation (0.830, 95% CI: 0.808-0.852) cohorts. The ICH-FOS was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P = 0.42) and validation (P = 0.39) cohort. When compared to 8 prior ICH scores, the ICH-FOS showed significantly better discrimination with regard to 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH (all P < 0.0001). Meanwhile, the ICH-FOS also demonstrated either comparable or significantly better discrimination for poor functional outcome and mortality at 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month after ICH.Conclusion: The ICH-FOS is a valid clinical grading scale for 1-year functional outcome after ICH. Further validation of the ICH-FOS in different populations is needed. © 2013 Ji et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.