Minilateralism and effective multilateralism in the global nuclear order

Abstract

Following the 2023 report of the United Nations High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism, this paper addresses the relationship between minilateralism and multilateralism in the global nuclear order. The paper theorizes minilateralism as a relational concept and fluid praxis, introducing a typology of inside and outside minilateralism. It then traces and analyzes these types of minilateralism within global nuclear weapons governance from 1970 to 2020. The paper finds that how states pursue minilateralism is conditional on how they perceive the effectiveness and legitimacy of wider membership multilateral institutions in nuclear governance. How complementary minilateralism is to effective multilateralism comes down to how minilateral groupings are positioned relative to multilateral institutions, how willing and able they are to integrate their activities in those institutions, and whether they, in turn, are considered legitimate. The paper concludes with recommendations for how minilateralism can complement effective multilateralism in global nuclear weapons governance and beyond.